HantaVirusTests

Transparent signal model

Methodik

Wie HantaVirusTests offizielle Hantavirus-Signale bewertet, was als Signal zahlt und warum der Radar keine Pandemieprognose ist.

Sources used

The radar reads WHO Disease Outbreak News records filtered for hantavirus references. Background medical explanations use WHO and CDC public-health guidance.

  • WHO Disease Outbreak News records for current official signals.
  • WHO hantavirus fact sheet for disease background and transmission context.
  • CDC public and clinical hantavirus guidance for symptoms, testing, clinical course, and prevention.

What counts as a signal

A signal is official wording that suggests current public-health relevance. The model weights the text and timing of official records, not social posts or unverified reports.

  • Recent official records in the tracked feed.
  • Repeated records within 7, 30, and 90 day windows.
  • Severe wording such as deaths, ICU care, shock, respiratory distress, or confirmed laboratory evidence.
  • International coordination, IHR channels, contact tracing, or multi-country language.
  • Person-to-person or close-contact wording, especially when Andes virus is named.

What does not count as a signal

The score deliberately excludes material that would make the tracker look more precise than the official source supports.

  • Unofficial rumors, social media claims, and unsourced case counts.
  • Symptoms reported by readers or users of the risk checker.
  • Private medical details or individual risk-check answers.
  • Generic search interest, media attention, or market-style momentum.

Score formula

The current score starts from a small baseline and adds bounded impacts for frequency, recency, cluster cadence, source presence, and severity wording. Official low-global-risk wording dampens the score. A deterministic two-hour uncertainty adjustment moves the public indicator without inventing new cases.

  • Frequency impact: recent records are weighted more heavily than older records.
  • Recency impact: the newest official signal contributes more when it is within the most recent days.
  • Severity impact: keyword rules detect mortality, confirmation, Andes virus, person-to-person wording, international coordination, ICU or respiratory severity, and risk-assessment terms.
  • Low global risk impact: official low-global-risk wording reduces or caps escalation pressure.
  • Uncertainty band: a deterministic two-hour adjustment is shown separately from the base score.

Why this is not a pandemic prediction

The radar is a transparency layer over official reporting. It does not model transmission chains, estimate reproduction numbers, forecast spread, or declare pandemic status.

Update frequency

The official feed request is cached for site performance, while the visible radar uses a two-hour model window and refreshes from the API during page use.

Human review / automated review

HantaVirusTests uses automated parsing for current official records and human editorial review for page wording, source framing, and corrections. Editorially reviewed against WHO and CDC public-health sources. No clinician medical-review claim is made.

Limitations

The model can miss source wording, source delays, local reports not reflected in WHO Disease Outbreak News, and clinical context that only health authorities or clinicians can evaluate.

  • The score is not a case count.
  • The score is not a diagnosis or medical triage result.
  • The score is not an official WHO, CDC, UN, or government risk level.
  • A low score does not rule out individual exposure or illness.

Last updated

2026-05-16

Editorial review

Editorially reviewed against WHO and CDC public-health sources. No clinician medical-review claim is made.

Corrections policy

Report factual, source, or medical wording issues to contact@hantavirustests.space or https://t.me/hantavirustests. Material corrections should update the visible page date.

Medical sources

WHO hantavirus fact sheetWHO Disease Outbreak NewsCDC hantavirus overviewCDC clinical overviewCDC prevention guidance

Educational information only. This site does not diagnose, treat, or replace professional medical care.